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The data behind Circle’s $18B Valuation.

USDC

CEX

Derivatives

Written by The Kaiko Research Team

16/06/2025

    Welcome to the Data Debrief!

    Welcome back to the Data Debrief! Circle’s IPO debut on the New York Stock Exchange on June 5th captured market attention, with shares surging well beyond expectations and outperforming other major crypto listings. This special edition of our Data Debrief examines the on- and off-chain data signals that set the stage for this blockbuster launch and help explain the drivers behind Circle’s remarkable valuation.

    • USDC volumes & supply hit all-time highs in Q2

    • EURC leads with 47% of EUR stablecoin market


    • 40K+ wallets hold 100+ USDC weekly

    Trend of The Week

    The data behind Circle’s $18B Valuation

    Circle’s market debut this month was spectacular. Trading as CRCL, shares closed last week up 140% from their first-day close and over 270% above the $31 IPO price. This performance reflects a broader 2025 IPO resurgence, as investors look beyond the “Magnificent Seven” to growth in crypto, stablecoins, payments, and AI.

    Circle’s appeal goes further than timing. It gives investors exposure to the future of payments, highlighted by recent stablecoin adoption from leaders like Shopify, PayPal, and Visa.

    On- and off-chain data for Circle’s flagship product, USDC (USD Coin), offer rare transparency into the company’s valuation. They reveal rapid stablecoin adoption and strong demand for compliant digital dollars—key factors driving Circle’s valuation and long-term growth prospects.

    Ahead of its June IPO, crypto market indicators signaled that Circle’s revenue was growing rapidly. Unlike Coinbase, which is more affected by fluctuations in crypto prices, Circle generates stable and predictable income, estimated at about $1.5 billion annually, from interest on USDC reserves. This income continues to rise as adoption and issuance of USDC increase.
    This revenue is directly linked to both the supply of USDC and its trading volume, which are closely correlated. In Q2 2025, both weekly USDC trading volumes and market cap hit all-time highs, reinforcing the momentum behind Circle’s growth.
    USDC’s market share compared to other major stablecoins also surged to a recent all-time high of 20%, signaling strong relative outperformance. This growth was largely driven by Binance, which has overtaken Bybit as the leading venue for USDC trading. In May 2025, Binance accounted for 51% of global USDC volume, with weekly trading averaging $24 billion. The surge follows a strategic partnership with Circle in late 2024 that aims to accelerate USDC adoption across key markets.
    Circle is also benefiting from regulatory tailwinds, with its “compliance-first” playbook paying off in regions like Europe. Since MiCA took effect last year, its EUR-backed stablecoin, EURC, has quickly captured 47% of the EUR stablecoin market. With average trade sizes of $3,000, which is six times higher than its nearest competitor, Banking Circle’s EURI, EURC’s growth signals strong institutional adoption.
    Another sign of growing adoption is the rising number of spot trading pairs and perpetual futures contracts that are traded and settled in USDC. The number of perpetual contracts quoted in USDC has quadrupled since 2023, increasing from 22 to nearly 90.

    Perpetual markets dominate trading volumes in crypto, far eclipsing spot markets. As a result, Circle’s growing foothold in this area plays an important role in maintaining its market share and liquidity against rivals. Although USDC has long lagged behind Tether’s USDT in derivatives markets, it is becoming more competitive, particularly due to the Binance-Circle partnership.

    Beyond off-chain metrics, on-chain activity provides key insights into USDC’s health and adoption. In fact, examining the average number of active wallets on a weekly basis over the past few years highlights the remarkable growth of Circle’s stablecoin. Since the beginning of 2025, there has been an average of 40k active wallets each week. These are wallets that have sent at least 100 USDC on Ethereum. This is double the weekly average observed in 2024.

    Not all on-chain activity directly impacts Circle’s bottom line, but it demonstrates strong market fit for USDC, which is already one of the most widely used crypto assets. On-chain transaction data further underscores this trend, with usage and adoption rising steadily since inception. Although activity plateaued between 2023 and 2025, it has since climbed to near record highs and remains well above average levels for the year.

    Tracking activity can also inform analysts and market participants about underlying risks and how market turmoil might impact a stablecoin. For instance, the Terra collapse in May 2022 caused a then-record high in on-chain activity for USDC. However, this was low compared to the FTX collapse, which itself was well below the level seen during the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. This reinforces the fact that idiosyncratic risk events, such as depegs, pose the biggest risk to stablecoins.
    Depeg risk is heightened by the threat of panic redemptions, where users rush to cash out and the peg can break, essentially creating a digital “bank run.” USDC sets itself apart with a low-friction redemption model, allowing users to redeem at par for daily amounts under $2 million without relying on secondary markets. This acts as a pressure-release valve that helps prevent liquidity spirals during periods of stress. This model was stress-tested during the SVB collapse in March 2023. Although USDC briefly lost its peg, Circle processed over $6 billion in redemptions and quickly restored price stability within 1 business day. In response, Circle also shifted a substantial portion of its reserves to BNY Mellon, the world’s largest custodial bank, thereby reducing counterparty risk.

    Lending and borrowing platforms can help mitigate the severity of depegs. For instance, during one of TUSD’s major depegs in 2023, users arbitraged its price discrepancy on Aave. However, due to TUSD’s limited presence on major platforms, borrowing rates surged and amplified volatility.

    In contrast, USDC is well established across protocols and is the sixth largest asset by supply on Aave. This widespread availability supports more efficient arbitrage during market dislocations, making USDC more resilient and better positioned to maintain its dollar peg during periods of stress.


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    Data Used In This Analysis

    Our industry-leading research is the direct result of combining our proprietary data with world-class in-house experts. Bringing the very best of Kaiko’s people and data together, we unlock the unique insights that form the basis for our discoveries and analysis. We believe in doing so, our data speaks for itself, helping both our clients and the wider industry get a better understanding of the crypto ecosystem, and the evolving trends and patterns in motion at a regional and global scale.

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