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BTC Rally Tracks Softer USD

Bitcoin

11/08/2025

    Welcome to the Data Debrief!

    Welcome back to the Data Debrief! Bitcoin pushed back toward its all-time high near $123k early Monday after rebounding from early August lows around $112k. The move tracked a broader risk rally as markets priced a September Fed cut. Stephen Miran’s nomination to the Fed Board last week reinforced that view after weak July jobs data. A softer dollar added a tailwind, lifting USD‑quoted flows and amplifying BTC’s gains.


    • Is Bitcoin rally about U.S. Dollar weakness?

    • Stablecoin liquidity deepens

    • XRP liquidty hits U.S. all-time highs after case closure

    BTC Rally Tracks Softer USD.

    U.S. dollar weakness has been a clear tailwind for BTC in 2025. Year-to-date, BTC is up 26% against the USD, compared with 19% versus the KRW and roughly 10-12% against the BRL, MXN, CHF, and EUR. The divergence widened after April’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, which knocked the DXY roughly 5-6% lower from early April levels and catalyzed flows into alternative assets, notably Bitcoin and gold.

    BTC’s rally this week is about more than just a weaker dollar. Bitcoin has pulled ahead of gold, attracted strong ETF flows, and delivered better risk-adjusted returns than both gold and equities. The focus remains on USD trading pairs, but trends in local markets and steady demand, even in the face of shifting regulations, show that Bitcoin’s market structure is growing more robust and resilient.

    Read more about what’s fueling Bitcoin’s rally in our Premium Data Debrief.

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    Data Used In This Analysis

    Our industry-leading research is the direct result of combining our proprietary data with world-class in-house experts. Bringing the very best of Kaiko’s people and data together, we unlock the unique insights that form the basis for our discoveries and analysis. We believe in doing so, our data speaks for itself, helping both our clients and the wider industry get a better understanding of the crypto ecosystem, and the evolving trends and patterns in motion at a regional and global scale.

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