Kaiko’s Top 10 Charts of 2024
BTC’s path to 100k
2024 was an unmitigated success for Bitcoin. The market matured following the launch of spot BTC exchange-traded funds in January and the fourth halving went by without a hitch.
Even several multi-billion-dollar liquidations and fire sales couldn’t dampen BTC’s success this year. The price of BTC in USD is up nearly 140% year-to-date, with even greater gains when measured against other fiat currencies, some of which have experienced significant devaluation in 2024.
US Election spurred bullish bets
The 2024 US General Election could be characterized as crypto’s first election. Never before have Bitcoin or digital assets commanded such attention on the world stage—at least not such positive attention.
President Trump came out in support of progressive regulation and an open dialogue with the industry over the summer months. He even appeared at the Bitcoin Nashville conference shortly after an attempt was made on his life. Much of the crypto community rallied around the Republican candidate and eventually Democratic nominee Kamala Harris began to make some positive moves around crypto.
Bitcoin became a “Trump trade” among market participants in the run up to the November 5 election. A special election contract on Deribit attracted billions of dollars in volume and open interest ahead of the election with a major bullish tilt among traders betting on fresh all-time highs shortly after the election. They were right and BTC traded over $75k by November 8.
The headline result as well as down-ballot results in the Senate were widely perceived as positive for crypto. As a result BTC led the post-election rally in crypto assets as it broke above $80k by November 11.
The increasingly bullish sentiment carried on through the rest of November and into December as we showed above, with BTC’s current record high somewhere north of $107k as traders bet on $120k by New Years Eve.
Fees spikes prior to Bitcoin’s fourth halving
Bitcoin’s fourth halving took place on April 19 this year. The average transaction fee on Bitcoin surged on the Saturday, reaching an all-time high of $146. This was significantly higher than Ethereum’s average fee of $3 on the day.
The historic surge in fees on the Bitcoin network was perhaps the most significant development during its fourth halving. It caught many market participants by surprise, despite warning signs.
Ordinals creator Casey Rodamor announced plans to launch Runes, a protocol which makes it easier to issue fungible tokens on Bitcoin. Based on how Ordinals impacted transaction fees users could have anticipated the rise, however, the historic rise still surprised many.
Ordinals allowed node operators to inscribe data and images on newly created Bitcoin blocks. These so-called “inscriptions” were similar to NFTs and increased the demand for block space on Bitcoin and boosted the fees earned by BTC miners.
The Runes launch played out in similar fashion. The protocol launch led to increased demand for block space which in turn impacted fees.
BlackRock Flipped Grayscale
BTC ETFs smashed all sorts of records this year as the total assets under management for the 11 funds rose to over $100bn.
BlackRock was the big winner, signalling major institutional interest in Bitcoin and digital assets. Its spot BTC ETF has over $55bn in assets under management, after outstripping Grayscale’s GBTC in a matter of months. GBTC, launched by digital asset manager Grayscale in 2013, was very much a crypto-first product and its large premiums/discounts to its net asset value meant it had limited buy-in from institutions. As such it was quickly overtaken by BlackRock this year after the ETFs launched.
GBTC bled assets for most of the year following the firm’s decision to keep fees elevated at 1.5%. In the ETF space in the US firms are accustomed to low fees and as such much of Wall Street preferred BlackRock and Fidelity over GBTC.
ETH/BTC Ratio declines
The ETH/BTC ratio has persistently declined since the Merge and showed no signs of slowing down in 2024. The ratio compares the performance of the two assets and falls when Ethereum underperforms Bitcoin.
Other factors that added to the decline included the rise of Solana as users migrated to the cheaper network during periods of heightened speculation in March and again in the fourth quarter of the year. Meme tokens, which we’ll discuss later, were behind much of the speculation and drove Solana DEX volumes above Ethereum at times this year.
In November it fell to 0.033, its lowest level since March 2021. What was behind the under performance? ETH has faced significant regulatory pressure since the Merge as staking came under the microscope in the US, drawing the ire of the SEC.
Slow burner: ETH ETF launch
ETH ETFs had a slow start to life after launching in July. Similar to the BTC ETF launch Grayscale’s fund again weighed on the market as the digital asset manager kept fees elevated at 2%.
However, the newly launched funds began to see inflows towards the end of 2024 after outflows from Grayscale’s ETHE waned. Inflows picked up massively since the US election in November as traders also flocked to ETH futures on the CME. This mirrored similar activity seen on BTC futures in May and June as traders executed the carry trade.
The shifting regulatory outlook at the rising open interest in ETH futures turned the tide for ETH ETFs as net flows turned positive at the end of November and through December. Net flows since launch are now over $2bn. This includes the more than $3bn exodus from ETHE.
ETH is set to be one of the big winners from the regime change in Washington DC. While it has lagged BTC this year, the regulatory shift brought on by the changing administration in the US will significantly benefit the second largest asset by market cap. Clarity around ETH’s classification, commodity or security, and on staking could be two major drivers for growth next year.
Trendsetter MicroStrategy bought more BTC than ever
MicroStrategy had its busiest year yet when it comes to buying BTC. The business software company has transitioned away from its core business in many ways this year. Chairman and former CEO Michael Saylor even referred to his firm as the world’s first “Bitcoin treasury company” during its third quarter results in November.
MicroStrategy has purchased over 249,850 BTC since January, accelerating purchases since the US election, almost doubling its holdings in the past month. The firm has made multiple convertible debt offerings to fund its purchases, raising fears among some market participants that a crash in prices could adversely affect the firm or even potentially lead to forced selling.
For now the strategy is working. The rapid increase in the price of BTC and bullish sentiment in markets led to MSTR surging in value to a new all-time high. MSTR set a new record high for the first time in 24 years—since the Dot Com bubble burst in March 2000.
While MicroStrategy is a pioneer in corporate BTC purchases, some Republican lawmakers want the U.S. government to emulate this. Senator Cynthia Lummis has promised to build a strategic BTC reserve following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election.
Alameda gap closed post-ETF
The crypto market finally put the FTX collapse in the rear view mirror this year. The gap in liquidity left following the collapse of FTX and its sister firm Alameda research, or the Alameda gap, closed out this year.
Bitcoin’s 1% market depth has been above its pre-FTX levels of around $120mn this year driven by both rising prices and growing market participation. The recovery was most prominent on Kraken, Coinbase and LMAX Digital. Notably Bitcoin market depth on institutional focused LMAX hit a record $27mn this week, briefly surpassing Bitstamp as the third most liquid Bitcoin market.
Meme token mania
As mentioned above meme tokens surged exponentially at different points this year. In particular tokens on Solana experienced significant growth due to the launch of pump dot fun, a protocol for launching meme tokens which enabled anyone to launch a token and build liquidity from the ground up through word of mouth and participation.
However, familiar assets largely dominated trade volumes on centralized exchange. Similar to previous rallies in 2021, Dogecoin was a favourite among traders—again due to post-election bullishness. Dogecoin moved higher after president elect Donald Trump’s revealed plans to start a “Department of Government Efficiency” (D.O.G.E.) spearheaded by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy.
One of the newer tokens launched on Solana that captured people’s imaginations this year was PNUT, inspired by Peanut the Squirrel—a New York based pet influencer whose untimely death led to an outpouring of support (and token launches) online.
One trader even turned a $16 investment in PNUT, while it was still on pump dot fun, into a $3mn realized profit. PNUT now trades on several large centralized exchanges, including Binance, Crypto.com, and OKX.
Regulation ignites changes in stablecoin market
Regulation in Europe has been reshaping the stablecoin market since June. The landmark European Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), spurred a wave of stablecoin delistings and product offering tweaks across major exchanges.
Throughout 2024, euro trade volumes against cryptocurrencies stayed above last year’s average, signaling growing demand. Three months after MiCA’s enactment, the euro-backed stablecoin market experienced a significant shift, fueled by the rise of MiCA-compliant alternatives. By November 2024, MiCA-compliant EUR stablecoins—including Circle’s EURC, Société Générale’s EURCV, and Banking Circle’s EURI—had captured a record 91% market share
Binance has emerged as a major player in the euro stablecoin market, matching Coinbase after listing EURI at the end of August. Despite this, Coinbase remains the largest market, holding a 47% share, driven by Circle’s EURC.
Conclusion
This year was a significant one for establishing digital assets as a viable asset for Wall Street investors. Time will tell if the industry can grow consistently in the coming months and years, but this rally feels different.
The 2024 rally was not built on single points of failure—like high yield lending in 2020/21—but instead by the arrival of established firms with risk frameworks that now include BTC and ETH. The rally is expected to extend beyond BTC and into other assets next year as regulation shift ring in market structure changes.
