Data Points
BCH sees strong selling as Mt Gox starts repayments.
On July 5, the Japanese exchange Mt. Gox trustee announced that it has begun repayments to creditors in BTC and BCH after ten years. While it is unclear how many investors will sell their holdings and on what venues, BCH has seen significant selling pressures.
Interestingly, selling accelerated on Binance and OKX prior to the announcement at the end of Asian opening hours on July 4, with several sell orders being executed on Binance around 9 am UTC.
![Screenshot 2024-07-08 at 10.49.54 AM](https://marketing.kaiko.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Screenshot%202024-07-08%20at%2010.49.54%20AM.png?upscale=true&width=1100&upscale=true&name=Screenshot%202024-07-08%20at%2010.49.54%20AM.png)
Looking at BCH price slippage for a simulated $100k sell order, it reached its highest level in over a month on most exchanges, indicating worsening liquidity due to insufficient order book depth for large market orders. This coincided with strong selling pressure related to the Mt. Gox repayments event, with the highest slippage increase observed on Itbit and Bybit. On July 5, BCH slippage rose from 0.2% to 2.8% on Bybit and from 0.3% to 3.5% on Itbit.
![Screenshot 2024-07-08 at 10.52.53 AM](https://marketing.kaiko.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Screenshot%202024-07-08%20at%2010.52.53%20AM.png?upscale=true&width=1100&upscale=true&name=Screenshot%202024-07-08%20at%2010.52.53%20AM.png)
ETF flows plummet alongside volatility.
Despite recording the longest consecutive days of inflows between May and June, spot BTC ETF inflows significantly declined quarter-on-quarter. Net inflows into spot BTC ETFs in the US took a hit in the second quarter of the year. Most ETFs experienced outflows for the first time, including BlackRock’s IBIT.
![Screenshot 2024-07-04 at 17.05.52](https://marketing.kaiko.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Screenshot%202024-07-04%20at%2017.05.52.png?upscale=true&width=1100&upscale=true&name=Screenshot%202024-07-04%20at%2017.05.52.png)
While trading typically slows over the summer months, and liquidity tends to dry up, issuers remain confident and some have previously noted that flows could pick up in the fourth quarter as more registered investment advisors in the US are onboarded.
BTC’s realized volatility fell at the same time as inflows subsided and prices trended lower. Volatility reached its lowest point of 2024 on June 23, but has since climbed over 6 percentage points to around 42%, according to Kaiko’s Data+ dashboard.
![Realized Volatility - 30D (3)](https://marketing.kaiko.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Realized%20Volatility%20-%2030D%20(3).jpg?upscale=true&width=1100&upscale=true&name=Realized%20Volatility%20-%2030D%20(3).jpg)
BTC volatility often spikes after extended downtrends. In February, it rose by 8 percentage points in one week, soaring from 45% to over 74% in March. Similar spikes occurred in January and previously in October and August of last year. With lower liquidity during the summer months and potential selling from Mt. Gox creditors and BTC miners, volatility could react similarly in the coming weeks.
TON outperforms amid Telegram’s growing use cases.
TON reached a new record high above $8.20 in mid-June, a feat most altcoins haven’t achieved since the 2021 bull run. Much of TON’s interest over the past year has been driven by use cases related to the social messaging app Telegram and its success with its 1 billion users.
![Screenshot 2024-07-04 at 16.45.35](https://marketing.kaiko.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Screenshot%202024-07-04%20at%2016.45.35.png?upscale=true&width=1120&upscale=true&name=Screenshot%202024-07-04%20at%2016.45.35.png)
TON’s trade volumes has also risen over the past year. Volumes increased in both dollar and asset terms, suggesting the increasing is not simply due to higher prices, but more demand for TON tokens. TON’s liquidity has increased at the same time, with 1% market depth up from $2.5mn in January to over $8mn by July.
TON’s open interest reached a record high of $287 million in early July, indicating strong capital inflows. Funding rates have fluctuated between positive and negative this year, reflecting a balance between long and short positions. Both bullish and bearish traders have been active in recent months, with funding rates turning heavily negative in May, signaling a bearish sentiment.
![Screenshot 2024-07-05 at 15.35.14](https://marketing.kaiko.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Screenshot%202024-07-05%20at%2015.35.14.png?upscale=true&width=1100&upscale=true&name=Screenshot%202024-07-05%20at%2015.35.14.png)