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Bitcoin Booms in Low-Risk Environment

Bitcoin

Written by The Kaiko Research Team

14/07/2025

    Welcome to the Data Debrief!

    Welcome back to the Data Debrief! Bitcoin topped $123k for the first time on Monday as last week’s rally extended into a second week. Today we’re going to explore the latest all-time highs in the context of portfolio risk, focusing on how BTC has consistently set highs during low volatility periods in recent months.

    • The backdrop as BTC hits another record high

    • U.S. hours dominate BTC volume

    • Euro market share of volumes near all-time high

    Trend of the Week

    Bitcoin booms in low-risk environment

    The original cryptocurrency is on yet another barnstorming run. In fact the rally over the past week’s markets is the third of its kind since January, when BTC broke $110k for the first time. Last week it surged again, this time above $118k. BTC even breached $123k on some exchanges today, according to Kaiko data.

    While BTC has historically been criticized for its high volatility, these recent rallies have occured against a low volatility backdrop, especially relative to historical highs.

    Screenshot 2025-07-14 at 16.12.45

    BTC’s realized 30-day volatility is currently below 40%, much lower that its average of 51% since January 2022. One of the major turning points on BTC’s volatility journey was the launch of spot BTC exchange-traded funds launched in January of 2024. Since then 30-day realized volatility hasn’t gotten above 80%. It even went as low as 25% in June of last year.

    It’s easy to think that this might be a concern for BTC investors, who often viewed its high volatility as a feature and not a bug. However, its recent lower volatility profile hasn’t come at the cost of gains, as we can clearly see over the past few months.

    Our latest Premium Data Debrief explores the maturity of BTC over the past few years, its current risk profile, and how markets are positioning amid the latest rally.

    Want the full analysis?

    Subscribe to Kaiko Research Premium to gain access to all 10 in-depth charts with expert analysis from this week’s debrief. Sign up today for your first month free, then $11.99 per month.

    Data Used In This Analysis

    Our industry-leading research is the direct result of combining our proprietary data with world-class in-house experts. Bringing the very best of Kaiko’s people and data together, we unlock the unique insights that form the basis for our discoveries and analysis. We believe in doing so, our data speaks for itself, helping both our clients and the wider industry get a better understanding of the crypto ecosystem, and the evolving trends and patterns in motion at a regional and global scale.

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