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A summer of uncertainty ahead?

Liquidity

CEX

Macro

Written by The Kaiko Research Team

19/05/2025

    Welcome to the Data Debrief!

    Welcome back to the Data Debrief! Bitcoin barely moved, holding near $103K on Monday after Moody’s stripped the U.S. of its last triple-A rating amid mounting debt. Meanwhile, Coinbase entered the S&P 500, but the euphoria was short-lived. The exchange revealed that client information was stolen as hackers sought to blackmail the firm, with costs related to the incident expected to reach $400 million.

    • Are we in for a quiet summer?

    • BTC 1% depth hits record highs on U.S. platforms.

    • ETH IV inverts following spot price moves.

    Trend of the Week

    BTC 1% depth hits ATH.

    Bitcoin liquidity on U.S.-based exchanges reached a new all-time high of $290 million in early May, reflecting a steady rise in 1% market depth, both in BTC terms and USD, since the start of the year.

    ETH IV inverts.

    Ethereum’s 60% price surge triggered an implied volatility term structure inversion due to traders rushing to adjust positions, rather than from market risk concerns.

    Why are BTC spreads higher on U.S. platforms?

    Bitcoin’s tighter bid-ask spreads on offshore exchanges primarily reflect their competitive fee structures and market maker incentives, rather than true liquidity advantages over U.S. venues.

    Chart of the Week

    Summer of uncertainty ahead or testing new highs?

    Summer has traditionally been a quieter period for both crypto and equity markets, with the old adage “Sell in May and go away, come back on St. Leger’s day” often proving true. Historical data backs this up.

    Since 2020, Q3 has consistently recorded the lowest trading volumes for Bitcoin, except in 2022, when cascading sell-offs triggered by the collapse of Celsius and Three Arrows Capital led to an unusual spike in summer activity.

    So, are we in for another sleepy summer?

    Probably not. Several major catalysts are converging. The Fed’s next meeting precedes President Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline, while crucial U.S. crypto legislation is expected before Congress’s August recess.

    Options markets are already pricing in higher volatility. June 27 expiry has seen significant volume with bullish positioning at $110K and $120K strikes, suggesting traders anticipate new BTC highs despite macro headwinds.


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    Data Used In This Analysis

    Our industry-leading research is the direct result of combining our proprietary data with world-class in-house experts. Bringing the very best of Kaiko’s people and data together, we unlock the unique insights that form the basis for our discoveries and analysis. We believe in doing so, our data speaks for itself, helping both our clients and the wider industry get a better understanding of the crypto ecosystem, and the evolving trends and patterns in motion at a regional and global scale.

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