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Santa Rallies, Cycles, and Year-End Reflections for Bitcoin

Derivatives

Binance

Indices

Macro

Written by Laurens Fraussen

29/12/2025

    Welcome to the Data Debrief!

    Welcome back to the Data Debrief! As markets approach the end of the year, Bitcoin finds itself at a familiar crossroads, caught between cyclical behavior and a steadily developing market. While year-end seasonality has historically played a role in shaping price action, recent data suggests that cyclical drivers are increasingly dominant.


    • Bitcoin’s year-end performance remains cyclical, but is increasingly shaped by macro factors.

    • Derivatives markets reflect how traders price risk, macro, and volatility.

    • Volatility metrics highlight shifts in uncertainty, positioning, and market confidence.

    Santa Rallies, Cycles, and Year-End Reflections for Bitcoin

    Santa rallies have long been a feature of traditional markets, particularly U.S. equities, where December has historically delivered consistent gains amid thinner liquidity and year-end rebalancing. However, Bitcoin continues to demonstrate its own distinct cyclical dynamics, even as it trades more in line with traditional assets.

    Options data reinforces the absence of aggressive directional positioning for a Santa rally. Volume by strike for the December 26 expiry shows activity concentrated around near-the-money strikes, particularly between $85,000 and $100,000, with limited demand for far out-of-the-money calls or puts. The largest single concentration appears at $85,000, where put volume exceeds $5B notional, reflecting hedging activity rather than speculative conviction.

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    Data Used In This Analysis

    Our industry-leading research is the direct result of combining our proprietary data with world-class in-house experts. Bringing the very best of Kaiko’s people and data together, we unlock the unique insights that form the basis for our discoveries and analysis. We believe in doing so, our data speaks for itself, helping both our clients and the wider industry get a better understanding of the crypto ecosystem, and the evolving trends and patterns in motion at a regional and global scale.

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