Is Wall Street Driving BTC Prices?

Bitcoin

ETF

07/10/2025

BTC crossed $125k for the first time over the weekend as markets rose across the board last week. Following BTC’s latest record run, we’re exploring BTC’s price drivers and price discovery mechanisms. In particular, we look at the role of spot exchange-traded funds on prices, questioning a common assumption that they are the main driver of BTC’s price.

Bumper week for BTC ETFs
Why flows don’t necessarily signal price changes
The importance of market structure improving

Trend of the Week

Despite the latest U.S. government shutdown, markets are buoyant across the board. Broad based equity indices are near all-time highs, as is gold and now so is BTC. Its latest rally leaves it up over 160% since the launch of spot ETFs in January 2025.

Last week, the spot BTC ETF cohort took in more than $3.2 billion, with just over $1.8 billion coming directly from BlackRock’s IBIT. This follows a pattern: in January, May, and July, spot ETFs recorded net inflows in excess of $2 billion each time as BTC set new record highs. This raises a question that has been persistently asked since the launch of these products: is Wall Street driving BTC prices?

While our research shows there’s been more extreme returns since ETFs launched, and a higher probability of large returns, the products alone aren’t driving returns.

Screenshot 2025-10-06 at 20.07.44

We explore the statistical significance of ETFs, why liquidity matters, and encouraging signs in the options markets in the full report. Sign up below to read more.

Want the full analysis?

Subscribe to Kaiko Research Premium for more market insights.

Get the full analysis

Already subscribed ? Log in now.

Data Used In This Analysis

Our industry-leading research is the direct result of combining our proprietary data with world-class in-house experts. Bringing the very best of Kaiko’s people and data together, we unlock the unique insights that form the basis for our discoveries and analysis. We believe in doing so, our data speaks for itself, helping both our clients and the wider industry get a better understanding of the crypto ecosystem, and the evolving trends and patterns in motion at a regional and global scale.

Market Explorer

Price and transaction volume for centralized and decentralized exchanges.

Level 1 & Level 2 Market Data

Tick and aggregated market data, from cryptocurrency exchanges.

Blockchain Monitoring Tool

All users, all transactions, and all history for blockchain wallets.

Macro

20/01/2026 Data Debrief
Infrastructure Is Holding Back Tokenization
Real-world asset tokenization has evolved from a theoretical exercise into a measurable market, but the data reveals a split reality. Stablecoins have achieved massive scale, while tokenized securities, commodities, and infrastructure tokens remain concentrated, illiquid, and far from self-sustaining.

Written by Laurens Fraussen
Macro

13/01/2026 Data Debrief
Positioning for $100K: Signals and Key Catalysts
This week’s Data Debrief examines the positioning dynamics beneath the surface of the early January rally. Extraordinary call volume concentration at and around the $100,000 strike, an inverted volatility term structure, and neutral funding rates suggesting balanced leverage.

Written by Adam Morgan McCarthy
Indices

06/01/2026 Data Debrief
The Rise and Repricing of Digital Asset Treasuries
As digital assets mature and market structure deepens, corporate and institutional crypto holdings are being reclassified from speculative bets to managed treasuries. Instead of sitting passively on balance sheets, these positions are increasingly treated as a distinct asset pool, with dedicated strategies for liquidity, risk, and yield.

Written by Laurens Fraussen
Derivatives

29/12/2025 Data Debrief
Santa Rallies, Cycles, and Year-End Reflections for Bitcoin
As markets approach the end of the year, Bitcoin finds itself at a familiar crossroads, caught between cyclical behavior and a steadily developing market. While year-end seasonality has historically played a role in shaping price action, recent data suggests that cyclical drivers are increasingly dominant.

Written by Laurens Fraussen