Join us for our latest webinar in collaboration with Cboe

Sign up now
Log In Kaiko Data
  1. Home
  2. Insights

  3. Fed Reforms Spark Cross-Asset Volatility Spike

Fed Reforms Spark Cross-Asset Volatility Spike

Binance

Derivatives

Hyperliquid

Macro

Written by Laurens Fraussen

02/02/2026

    Welcome to the Data Debrief!

    Welcome back to the Data Debrief! 

    The final week of January 2026 delivered a stress test across multiple markets simultaneously. As the Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.5-3.75% amid leadership transition uncertainty, Bitcoin declined 15% from $88,000 to $74,500, triggering ~$7 billion in liquidations.


    • Macro uncertainty amplified market swings with high volatility on commodities

    • Bitcoin’s 15% collapse, gold’s crypto-like swings, and $7B in crypto liquidations

    • A deep dive into execution quality across venues

    Fed Reforms Spark Cross-Asset Volatility Spike

    On January 28, 2026, the Federal Reserve maintained its target rate at 3.5-3.75%, marking Jerome Powell’s final FOMC meeting as chair. While the decision itself aligned with consensus expectations, market attention rapidly shifted to succession planning. By January 29, reports indicated President Trump would nominate Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor known for a more hawkish approach.

    Bitcoin, which consolidated between $88,000 and $90,000 for most of January, experienced a sharp breakdown in the 24 hours following the FOMC decision and Warsh speculation. The price declined to $74,500 over the next few days, following a 15% drop that triggered ~$7 billion in liquidations.

    Perhaps the most significant development occurred in precious metals markets. Gold surged past $5,500 on Thursday/Friday before reversing sharply, settling around $4,700-4,800. The reversal came as markets reassessed the Warsh nomination. While initial reactions focused on hawkish policy, Warsh’s reputation as a defender of Fed independence gradually reassured investors. The intraday range exceeded typical annual volatility metrics for the asset. Meanwhile Silver, which typically exhibits 2-3x gold’s percentage moves, showed even more dramatic oscillations with flash crash characteristics observed across multiple venues.

    Want the full analysis?

    Subscribe to Kaiko Research Premium for more market insights.

    Get the full analysis

    Data Used In This Analysis

    Our industry-leading research is the direct result of combining our proprietary data with world-class in-house experts. Bringing the very best of Kaiko’s people and data together, we unlock the unique insights that form the basis for our discoveries and analysis. We believe in doing so, our data speaks for itself, helping both our clients and the wider industry get a better understanding of the crypto ecosystem, and the evolving trends and patterns in motion at a regional and global scale.

    • Market Explorer

      Price and transaction volume for centralized and decentralized exchanges.

      Learn more

    • Level 1 & Level 2 Market Data

      Tick and aggregated market data, from cryptocurrency exchanges.

      Learn more

    • Blockchain Monitoring Tool

      All users, all transactions, and all history for blockchain wallets.

      Learn More

    More From Kaiko Research

    • Binance

      02/02/2026 Data Debrief

      Fed Reforms Spark Cross-Asset Volatility Spike

      Real-world asset tokenization has evolved from a theoretical exercise into a measurable market, but the data reveals a split reality. Stablecoins have achieved massive scale, while tokenized securities, commodities, and infrastructure tokens remain concentrated, illiquid, and far from self-sustaining.

      Written by Laurens Fraussen

    • Macro

      26/01/2026 Data Debrief

      Tariff Uncertainty Exposes Bitcoin's Identity Crisis

      Tariff volatility exposed Bitcoin’s ongoing identity crisis. Trump’s Greenland tariff threats triggered a violent round-trip in crypto markets, with Bitcoin plunging below $88,000 while gold surged over 5%, highlighting their inverse correlation. Behind the headlines, orderbook depth remained surprisingly stable even as the CME basis collapsed into negative territory for the first time in years, signaling the unwind of institutional carry trades that had anchored demand since ETF launches.

      Written by Laurens Fraussen

    • Macro

      20/01/2026 Data Debrief

      Infrastructure Is Holding Back Tokenization

      Real-world asset tokenization has evolved from a theoretical exercise into a measurable market, but the data reveals a split reality. Stablecoins have achieved massive scale, while tokenized securities, commodities, and infrastructure tokens remain concentrated, illiquid, and far from self-sustaining.

      Written by Laurens Fraussen

    • Macro

      13/01/2026 Data Debrief

      Positioning for $100K: Signals and Key Catalysts

      This week’s Data Debrief examines the positioning dynamics beneath the surface of the early January rally. Extraordinary call volume concentration at and around the $100,000 strike, an inverted volatility term structure, and neutral funding rates suggesting balanced leverage.

      Written by Adam Morgan McCarthy