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Positioning for $100K: Signals & Key Catalysts

Macro

CEX

Derivatives

Written by Adam Morgan McCarthy

13/01/2026

    Welcome to the Data Debrief!

    Welcome back to the Data Debrief! This week’s Data Debrief examines the positioning dynamics beneath the surface of the early January rally. Extraordinary call volume concentration at and around the $100,000 strike, an inverted volatility term structure, and neutral funding rates suggesting balanced leverage. With three major catalysts arriving within the next two weeks, CPI data, Geopolitical tensions, and an FOMC meeting, the market appears coiled for a decisive move.


    • Options positioning reveals conviction at $100K

    • Balanced leverage creates room for catalyst-driven moves

    • Three catalysts in 15 days will test market structure

    Positioning for $100K: Signals & Key Catalysts

    The crypto market entered 2026 with tentative optimism after a disappointing end to 2025. Bitcoin rallied from $87,000 to briefly touch $94,000 in the first few days of the year. In fact, returns over the first five days (7%) of 2026 were the best since 2021, when prices soared 16% in the first few days of the year.

    While Bitcoin has since surrendered those gains and consolidated around $90,000, the market remains optimistic. Beneath the surface, market structure reveals a more complex positioning landscape.

    The January 30th expiry on Deribit shows significant volume concentration at the $100k strike. Between Monday and Friday there was nearly $1bn traded on strikes around $100k, with $527mn on $98k and $337mn on $100k, primarily calls. This clustering demonstrates positive sentiment despite the pullback to around $91k.

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    Data Used In This Analysis

    Our industry-leading research is the direct result of combining our proprietary data with world-class in-house experts. Bringing the very best of Kaiko’s people and data together, we unlock the unique insights that form the basis for our discoveries and analysis. We believe in doing so, our data speaks for itself, helping both our clients and the wider industry get a better understanding of the crypto ecosystem, and the evolving trends and patterns in motion at a regional and global scale.

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